Risk prediction for type 2 diabetes in the German population with the updated German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS)

Peer-reviewed | Manuscript received: February 14, 2014 | Revision accepted: May 2, 2014

Introduction

Based on exclusively non-invasive risk factors the GDRS allows the prediction of the risk for developing type 2 diabetes within the next 5 years. It was derived from data of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study in 2007 and validated in other studies [1]. For public use a web tool and a questionnaire version is available (http://drs.dife.de/).

A study investigating the use of the web tool showed that especially people with a higher risk performed the test several times with varying answers of the modifiable risk factors [2]. Feedback from users of the test during the past years made it possible to identify areas which could lead to misunderstandings, although providing additional information. Critical aspects were - the evaluation of alcohol consumption with non-drinkers having an increased diabetes risk; - the evaluation of moderate smoking where former and current smokers with less than 20 cigarettes per day were valued similar to never smokers; - the intake of whole-grain products which was limited to whole-grain bread, although also other whole-grain products (e.g. muesli) might be consumed – especially for breakfast.

Summary

The GDRS was developed by the German Institute of Human Nutrition and enables the calculation of the 5-year risk for developing type 2 diabetes. Now, it was extended with the inclusion of family history information and with modifications regarding dietary risk factors (e.g. whole-grain cereals) and, with regard to experiences from the application, the GDRS was further improved in terms of practicability.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus type 2; diabetes risk prediction; prediction model; European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study

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